SECURITY PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS WHILE TAKING THE HISTORY AND NEW REALITIES INTO ACCOUNT
The changes underway in the world during the recent period have already affected its multiple
regions, including the South Caucasus.
It is expected that this impact is not only going to persist, but grow stronger or weaker, also considering
what kind of policies will be chosen by the states of the South Caucasus themselves on the
one hand and by those powers or power centres, struggling for influence over this region, on the
In order to establish a real, stable, and inclusive security system, the following factors are necessary:
- Objective and accurate definition of existing and potential threats (difficulties – objective and
- Neutralization of the conflict threat (through preventive activity);
- In case of existing conflicts – their resolution as soon as possible.
All of the abovementioned factors are mainly evaluated differently by the South Caucasus states
and, in such conditions, establishment of a real, stable and comprehensive system of regional security
is possible only theoretically and only in case of guaranteed existence of several vital prerequisites.
Nevertheless, there are certain grounds to suppose that the situation existing in the South Caucasus
could be significantly different, had the leading countries of the West pursued a different policy
exactly regarding Russia.
As to establishment of a comprehensive and stable regime of security, the likelihood of this being
possible is almost at the same level as at the time of restoration of independence by the South
Caucasus states. This is so, because unresolved conflicts still remain in the region, the third military
power is still present here, the states of the region still have differing viewpoints regarding the possible
guarantor forces of their own and the region’s security, while the leading countries of the world
still cannot agree upon a common policy necessary for turning the South Caucasus into a region of
cooperation, and not only in terms of military-political, but also economic, specifically energy aspects.
For establishment of real and sustainable security in the region for the future it is, again and again,
necessary to ensure both a high and stable level of democracy in the states of the region itself, which
will result in creation of a mutually profitable and good neighbourly regime of economic and political
cooperation between democratic states of the region, as well as more active and effective facilitation
of these processes by leading countries of the world and international organizations, as well as in
terms of containment of the aggressive policy (including the so-called “soft power”) of Russia. Only
all of this can be followed by peaceful and fair regulation of the conflicts and can provide the region
with international security guarantees.